COVID-19 Atmanirbhar Package 3.0 – Summary Impact Analysis

COVID-19 Atmanirbhar Package 3.0 – Summary Impact Analysis

COVID-19 has spread into more than 200 countries including India with total number of confirmed cases nearing 60 million and the virus having claimed more than 1.3 million lives. Globally, several countries announced total/partial lockdowns from mid-March in order to control the spread of the virus. While few countries have experienced a certain degree of success in arresting the outbreak, several countries continue to deal with increasing number of confirmed cases on a daily basis. India, which is home to 1.4 billion people, reported 443,303 confirmed cases as on November 19, with 131,578 fatalities. While India continues to rank #2 in terms of total number of confirmed cases globally (89,58,483 cases), the recovery and fatality rates have significantly improved and several key pockets in the economy have already indicated a return to normalcy.

In May 2020, the Government of India announced a series of measures to alleviate the impact of the pandemic and provide relief to the vulnerable sections of the society. The INR 20 trillion relief package – a series of front-ended and back-ended financial support programs – titled Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Mission Self Reliant India), was announced over a period of five days (May 14-19, 2020), with each day focusing on a different set of target sectors. You can read our daily coverage of the Atmanirbhar package and their impact on our target sectors on earlier pages of this blog here, here, here, here and here, and an interim status monitor tracking promise vs. performance here.

On November 12, 2020, the Government announced the third tranche of its Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (“Atmanirbhar 3.0”), rolling out additional relief packages targeted at providing liquidity to needy sectors and job creation. Atmanirbhar 3.0 envisages a total outlay of INR 2.7 trillion or 1.4% of the GDP, with its key focus areas including stressed sectors, agriculture, exports, housing, infrastructure, manufacturing, social welfare and labour reforms. In this note, our investment team does a quick analysis of the package, evaluating potential impact on our target sectors.

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